Personal page of Davud Rostam-Afschar

Welcome!

I'm an economist mainly interested in research on

household and public economics using applied microeconometrics.

You can contact me by email:

davud.rostam-afschar(at)uni-hohenheim.de (GPG-Key).

2: How Important is Precautionary Labor Supply?
Co-authors: Robin Jessen and Sebastian Schmitz
Download: Hohenheim Discussion Paper No. 07-2016 [display/hide abstract]

We quantify the importance of precautionary labor supply using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) for 2001-2012. We estimate dynamic labor supply equations augmented with a measure of wage risk. Our results show that married men choose about 2.5% of their hours of work or one week per year on average to shield against unpredictable wage shocks. This implies that about 26% of precautionary savings are due to precautionary labor supply. If self-employed faced the same wage risk as the median civil servant, their hours of work would reduce by 4%.
1: Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Co-authors: Thomas Meissner
Download: FU-Berlin Discussion Paper No. 2014/16. [display/hide abstract]

This paper tests whether the Ricardian Equivalence proposition holds in a life cycle consumption laboratory experiment. This proposition is a fundamental assumption underlying numerous studies on intertemporal choice and has important implications for tax policy. Using nonparametric and panel data methods, we find that the Ricardian Equivalence proposition does not hold in general. Our results suggest that taxation has a significant and strong impact on consumption choice. Over the life cycle, a tax relief increases consumption on average by about 22% of the tax rebate. A tax increase causes consumption to decrease by about 30% of the tax increase. These results are robust with respect to variations in the difficulty to smooth consumption. In our experiment, we find the behavior of about 62% of our subjects to be inconsistent with the Ricardian proposition. Our results show dynamic effects; taxation influences consumption beyond the current period.

Slides (using Stop-Motion animation technique and in color!), poster
3: Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany
Co-authors: Robin Jessen and Viktor Steiner
Public Finance Analysis, 2016, forthcoming. [display/hide abstract]

We study three budget-neutral reforms of the German tax and transfer system designed to improve work incentives for people with low incomes: a feasible flat tax reform that provides a basic income which is equal to the current level of the means tested unemployment benefit, and two alternative reforms that involve employment subsidies to stimulate participation and full-time work, respectively. We estimate labor supply reactions and welfare effects using a microsimulation model based on household data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a structural labor supply model. We find that all three reforms increase labor supply in the first decile of the income distribution. However, the flat tax scenario reduces overall labor supply by 4.9%, the reform scenario designed to increase participation reduces labor supply by 1%, while the reform that provides improved incentives to work full-time has negligible effects on overall labor supply. With equal welfare weights, aggregate welfare gains are realizable under all three reforms.
2: Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Co-authors: -
Empirical Economics, 2014, Vol. 47(3), pp. 1067-1101. [display/hide abstract]

This paper uses the 2004 amendment to the German Trade and Crafts Code as a natural experiment for assessing the causal effects of this reform on the probabilities of being self-employed and of transition into and out of self-employment. This is achieved by using repeated cross-sections (2002-2009) of German microcensus data. I apply the difference-in-differences technique for three groups of craftsmen which were subject to different intensities of treatment. The results show that the complete exemption from the educational entry requirement has fostered self-employment significantly by substantially increasing the entry probabilities, while exit rates have remained unaffected. I find similar, though weaker relative effects for the treatment groups that were subject to a reduction of entry costs or a partial exemption from the entry requirements. Moreover, I consider effect heterogeneity within each of the treatment groups with respect to gender and vocational training, and show that the deregulation of entry requirements has been most effective for untrained workers.
1: Precautionary and Entrepreneurial Savings: New Evidence from German Households
Co-authors: Frank Fossen
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 2013, Vol. 75(4), pp. 528–555. [display/hide abstract]

Various studies interpret the positive correlation between income risk and wealth as evidence of significant precautionary savings. However, these high estimates emerge from pooling non-entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs, without controlling for heterogeneity. This article provides evidence for Germany based on representative panel data that includes private wealth balance sheets. Entrepreneurs, who face high income risk, hold more wealth than employees, but this tendency is not because of precautionary motives. Instead, they appear to save more for their old age, because they are usually not covered by statutory pension insurance. The analysis accounts for endogeneity in entrepreneurial choice and heterogeneous risk attitudes.
3: How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
Co-authors: Robin Jessen
Download latest version: here[display/hide abstract]

Analogous to the widely studied concept of precautionary savings, our study contributes to the burgeoning literature on precautionary labor supply behavior when wages are subject to uninsurable wage risk. We estimate the parameters of a dynamic structural model of labor supply of men. We test whether workers are risk averse and prudent in the sense that they increase labor supply in anticipation of higher wage risk. The specification provides a direct test of the widely used CRRA utility function and could identify the Frisch elasticity. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) and the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), we are able to replicate the findings of the previous literature. However, with an extended specification that includes variability of leisure and wage, we reject restrictions implied by CRRA utility for both countries.
2: Labor Income Uncertainty and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from the German Socio-Economic Panel
Co-authors: Sebastian Schmitz
[display/hide abstract]

How does household fertility relate to labor income uncertainty? A large literature shows how household saving reacts to income uncertainty but only few studies recognize how fertility decisions are affected. We aim to shed some light on this relationship using data from the socio-economic panel from Germany. Our preliminary results indicate that our quantitative measure of income uncertainty is positively related to the number of children on average. A possible explanation for this pattern is specialization within the household.
1: Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
Co-authors: Jiaxiong Yao
Download latest version: here [display/hide abstract]

We study the effect of taxes and transfers on precautionary saving over the life cycle. We estimate idiosyncratic labor income risks and structural parameters of an incomplete-markets model for heterogeneous groups. Our simulated model shows that progressive taxation, compared to a revenue-neutral flat taxation, reduces the average savings by 24.6% for a household with median wealth. Despite crowding out part of savings, households are better insured against income shocks under progressive taxation. 60% of permanent shocks and 30% of transitory shocks to pre-government labor income are insured against under progressive taxation. There are sizeable welfare gains on average with progressive taxation but considerable heterogeneity among different subgroups.
1: Regulatory Effects of the Amendment to the HwO in 2004 in German Craftsmanship
European Commission, 2015, Research Report, Directorate General Internal Market and Services.

July 2016: SRH University Berlin, Berlin
Theoretical and Empirical Foundations of Policy Evaluation: The Case of Basic Income
July 2016: Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) and Representation of the European Commission in Germany, Berlin
Past Reforms in the Services Sector in Germany and their Effects
May 2016: Deutsche Bundesbank, Frankfurt
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
Jan 2016: Technische Universität Chemnitz, Chemnitz
Auswirkungen von Lohnunsicherheit auf die jährlichen Arbeitsstunden
June 2015: Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona, Barcelona
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption
June 2015: European Commission (Group of Coordinators for the Recognition of Professional Qualifications), Brussels
Mutual Evaluation of Regulated Professions
May 2015: World Bank, Warsaw
Seminar on Deregulation of Access to Professions
Jan 2015: European Commission (Representation of the European Commission in Germany), Brussels
In-Depth Session on Services in Germany
Jan 2017: Allied Social Sciences Associations (ASSA) Annual Meeting, Chicago
How Important is Precautionary Labour Supply?
Sept 2016: European Association of Labour Economists, Ghent
How Important is Precautionary Labour Supply?
Sept 2016: Verein für Socialpolitik, Augsburg
Uncertainty and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from German Micro Data
Aug 2016: European Economic Association, Geneva
How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
Aug 2016: International Institute of Public Finance, Lake Tahoe
A Just and Optimal Tax System
June 2016: Society for Social Choice and Welfare, Lund
A Just and Optimal Tax System
June 2016: Early-Career Behavioral Economics Conference, Behavior and Inequality Research Institute, Bonn
Harnessing the Wisdom of Crowds by Da and Huang
June 2016: International Association for Applied Econometrics, Milan
Uncertainty and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from German Micro Data
May 2016: Hohenheim Spring School, Universitaet Hohenheim
Bias in Idiosyncratic Income Inequality
May 2016: Brown Bag Seminar, Universitaet Hohenheim
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
Dec 2015: Public Finance Workshop WZB Berlin, Berlin
Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany?
Dec 2015: Simposio of the Spanish Economic Association, Girona
How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
Aug 2015: European Economic Association, Mannheim
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
June 2015: International Association for Applied Econometrics, Thessaloniki
How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
June 2015: 1st BeNA Labor Economics Workshop, Berlin
How Important is Precautionary Labour Supply?
Apr 2015: Brown Bag Seminar, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin
How Risk Averse and how Prudent are Workers?
Apr 2015: Network for Integrated Behavioural Science, Nottingham
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Dec 2014: Simposio of the Spanish Economic Association, Palma de Mallorca
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Nov 2014: Public Finance Workshop WZB Berlin, Berlin
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Nov 2014: BeNA Seminar on Labor Research, Berlin
Uncertainty and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from German Micro Data
Oct 2014: PhD Workshop Public Economics DIW Berlin, Berlin
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Sept 2014: CenEA Research Workshop on Optimizing Over the Lifetime, Warsaw
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
Sept 2014: Berlin Behavioral Economics Workshop, Berlin
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Sept 2014: Verein für Socialpolitik, Hamburg
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Sept 2014: Economic Science Association, Prague
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
Aug 2014: International Institute of Public Finance, Lugano
Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence
June 2014: International Association for Applied Econometrics, London
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
June 2014: Journées Louis-André Gérard-Varet, Aix-en-Provence
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
June 2014: European Society for Population Economics, Braga
Progressive Taxation and Precautionary Saving Over the Life Cycle
May 2014: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Uncertainty and Fertility Decisions: Evidence from German Micro Data
Oct 2013: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
Aug 2013: European Economic Association and Econometric Society European Meeting, Gothenburg
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Aug 2013: International Institute of Public Finance, Taormina
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
July 2013: PhD Workshop Public Economics, DIW Berlin
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
June 2013: Brown Bag Seminar, Humboldt Universitaet Berlin
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
Feb 2013: BeNA Seminar on Labor Research, Berlin
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
Jan 2013: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Taxation and Precautionary Savings over the Life Cycle
Sept 2012: Verein für Socialpolitik, Annual Meeting, Göttingen
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
May 2012: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Dec 2011: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Taxes and Entrepreneurial Portfolio Investment
Feb 2011: Ruhr Graduate School Doctoral Conference in Economics, Dortmund
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Oct 2010: BeNA Seminar on Labor Research, Berlin
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Jan 2010: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Entry Regulation and Entrepreneurship: A Natural Experiment in German Craftsmanship
Jan 2009: Economic Policy Seminar, Berlin
Precautionary Saving and Entrepreneurship: Evidence from German Households

Current Position

since 04/2016: Assistant Professor (Akademischer Rat), Universitaet Stuttgart-Hohenheim

Education

2015: Dr. rer. pol. (PhD in Economics), BDPEMS, Freie Universitaet Berlin
Supervisors: Prof. Dr. Viktor Steiner, Prof. Sir Richard Blundell
summa cum laude
2012: Visiting PhD student, Johns Hopkins University
2010: Diploma in Economics (Diplom Volkswirt), Freie Universitaet Berlin

Detailed Curriculum Vitae

: cv_rostamafschar.pdf

Brief Biography / Kurzlebenslauf

Davud Rostam-Afschar researches and teaches economics at Universitaet Stuttgart-Hohenheim. His research has primarily focused on consumption and saving behavior, labor supply decisions, and tax and transfer systems, with an emphasis on reconciling the empirical evidence from both microeconomic and macroeconomic sources with theoretical models. He worked as economic adviser for the European Commission and is author of articles in economics journals like the Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Empirical Economics, and Public Finance Analysis.

Davud Rostam-Afschar forscht und lehrt als wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter an der Universität Stuttgart-Hohenheim. Im Schwerpunkt seiner Forschung untersucht er Konsum- und Sparverhalten, Arbeitsangebotsentscheidungen und Steuer- und Transfersysteme. Insbesondere zielt seine Forschung darauf, empirische Fakten aus mikro- sowie makroökonomischen Quellen mit theoretischen Modellen in Einklang zu bringen. Er war als Berater für die Europäische Kommission tätig und ist Autor von Beiträgen in volkswirtschaftlichen Zeitschriften wie dem Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Empirical Economics und Public Finance Analysis.

How to pronounce my name

IPA

Davud

Hebrew

דוד

Rostam

Persian

the epic of kings

Afschar

dofiles: Replication files for "How Important is Precautionary Labor Supply?"
Stata dofiles, SOEP data available at http://www.diw.de/en/soep
data, dofile: Replication files for "Do Tax Cuts Increase Consumption? An Experimental Test of Ricardian Equivalence"
Stata dofile, dataset
graph3d: Stata module to draw colored, scalable, rotatable 3D plots
Stata user written command, RePEc

Summer 2016: Class "Public Economics" (Master, Uni Hohenheim)
evaluation
Summer 2016: Seminar "Public Economics" (Bachelor, Uni Hohenheim)
Fall 2015: Lecture "Applied Microeconometrics" (Ph.D./Master, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2015: Lecture "Economic Policy" (Bachelor, Uni Potsdam)
evaluation
Summer 2015: Lecture "Introduction to Microeconometrics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2014: Class "Principles of Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Summer 2014: Class "Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation I, evaluation II
Fall 2013: Class "Principles of Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2013: Class "Applied Microeconometrics" (Master, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2013: Prep Class "Quantitative Methods" (Master, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Summer 2013: Class "Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2012: Class "Principles of Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2012: Class "Applied Microeconometrics" (Master, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Summer 2012: Class "Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2011: Class "Principles of Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
Fall 2011: Class "Microeconometrics" (Ph.D./Master, FU Berlin)
Summer 2011: Class "Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)
evaluation
Fall 2010: Class "Principles of Macroeconomics" (Bachelor, FU Berlin)

Media

Sept 15, 2016: "Die Zukunft des Handwerks: Lehren aus der "Handwerksnovelle" von 2004"
Ökonomenstimme - The New Web Platform for German-speaking Economists.
May 24, 2016: Interview von Dr. Johannes Klenk (Uni Hohenheim)
Forschung hautnah: Forschungsprojekte an der Universitaet Hohenheim.
May 2, 2016: "Schweiz bringt Schwung in deutsche Debatte", "L’Allemagne débat aussi du revenu de base"
SWI swissinfo.ch - international service of the Swiss Broadcasting Corporation (SBC).
Mar 09, 2016: WebTalk Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen
Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung/bpb.
Jan 11, 2016: "Die Menschen von der Arbeit befreien"
Der Tagesspiegel.
Dec 8, 2015: "800 Euro für alle: Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen in Deutschland"
DRadio Wissen.
Sept 15, 2015: "Welche Effekte hätte ein bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen für Deutschland?"
Ökonomenstimme - The New Web Platform for German-speaking Economists.
July 8, 2015: "Die Expertise des Internationalen Währungsfonds"
Blog of Heiner Flassbeck, a German economist and publicist.
Apr 21, 2015: Davud Rostam-Afschar from @fu_berlin shares about whether tax cuts increase consumption at #NIBS2015 conference. @esrcnibs
— Benjamin Beranek (@BenjaminBeranek) 21. April 2015
Oct 22, 2014: "Hoe de Europese groeimotor weer aanzwengelen"
Knack.be, a Belgian (Flemish) weekly news magazine

Contact

Email: davud.rostam-afschar(at)uni-hohenheim.de

Phone: +49 (711) 459 22988

Davud Rostam-Afschar

Assistant Professor (AR), Universitaet Hohenheim

Welcome!

Current Research Papers

Refereed Publications

Work in Progress

Policy Reports

Keynotes and Invited Presentations

Other Presentations